I. Influencing factors of polypropylene quotation
International crude oil is an important indicator to measure economic prospects, and people often judge the future economic conditions through the fluctuations of international crude oil. Changes in international crude oil prices have a profound impact on the trend of the entire plastics market, including polypropylene, but it is mostly reflected in the impact on the market mentality, and the transmission of cost factors has little impact, and the volatility of international crude oil, the cost impact of transmission to the domestic market is about 2-3 months. The rise of international crude oil has boosted the mentality of market merchants and downstream manufacturers to a certain extent, making market sentiment improve and market enquiries increase; The continuous rise of international crude oil will make the market price rise, and the market turnover has improved. The decline in international crude oil has dealt a blow to the mentality of market merchants and downstream manufacturers to a certain extent, making the market wait-and-see atmosphere continue to be strong, the downstream willingness to receive goods is reduced, the market inventory is increased, and the pressure on traders is increased. International crude oil continues to fall, will make traders shipment pressure continues to increase, making the market price fell, the market volume is low.
II. Influence of propylene monomer
As the direct raw material of polypropylene, propylene monomer mainly affects the production cost of polypropylene and whether the plant can operate normally. However, because propylene monomer is greatly affected by crude oil fluctuations, market merchants and downstream manufacturers often pay more attention to international crude oil, and pay less attention to propylene monomer, making the impact of propylene on the market price of polypropylene is not obvious in the market. In the market, there is often a situation in which the petrochemical enterprise equipment parking and waiting for materials makes the supply of a certain brand of goods decrease, and the market price of the brand of goods rises. Therefore, the main factor of propylene monomer in the market is whether it can ensure the normal operation of petrochemical plants.
III. The impact of downstream consumption on polypropylene prices
Since the end of the last century, China's PP product structure has gradually moved closer to the international consumption structure. In the woven products market, domestic materials dominate, plastic woven bags produced by imported materials are mostly used for export, and only a small number of domestic sales. Although the absolute amount of consumption in this field is very large, but the proportion of the total consumption of PP is decreasing year by year, has dropped from 48% in 2006 to 42% in 2012, large, heavy and high strength, anti-static, anti-aging packaging bags will be the overall development trend of woven products in the future.
At the same time, in the downstream products of PP, the consumption of fiber and injection molded products has risen rapidly, increasing year by year at a double-digit rate. In the fiber products market, most of the production of low-grade products are made of domestic materials, and the raw materials required for the production of high-grade polypropylene products such as fine denier, ultra-fine denier, thin non-woven fabrics, and strong silk mainly rely on imports. It is expected that the proportion of PP consumption in fiber products will increase from about 11% in 2006 to about 14% in 2015.
In the injection molding products market, domestic materials and imported materials are equally divided, domestic materials occupy the low-end market, and imported materials monopolise the high-end market, such as the market's urgent need for thin-wall injection molding materials. Plastic injection market potential is huge, consumption is expected to increase from 1.5 million tons in 2006 to 3.5 million tons in 2015. In addition, special materials for blow molding containers, special materials for high-flow and high-impact vehicles, BOPP heat sealing film and special materials for BOPP high-speed production line with linear speed above 400m/min, and pressure resistant pipes have broad market prospects.
In the general materials market with huge market capacity, the competition between domestic materials and imported materials is very fierce; In the special materials market with relatively small capacity, imported materials are unique in the world. Auto parts, all kinds of household appliances and other high-grade special materials are mostly imported in the form of incoming materials processing, product added value and quality requirements are high, the material is relatively fixed, and it is difficult for domestic materials to enter this kind of market. In addition, PP modified materials will also have a place in the domestic special materials market.
IV. The impact of national policies
For the plastics industry, the introduction of a policy is the vane of enterprise development, and even directly affects the development direction of the plastics industry. When the plastic industry has excess capacity, the policy of eliminating backward production capacity has become a must; When the financial crisis hit, the plastics industry export trade was greatly affected, then the need for national policies to support the development of domestic demand, the relevant national policies are the guidance of the development of the plastics industry. Due to the lack of polypropylene production capacity in China, the foreign dependence is about 28%, the state encourages imports, January 1, 2008 will include polypropylene resin import tariffs adjusted from 7.6% to 6.5%, and there are no other policy restrictions.
