How to deduce the market after polypropylene export fever
From the perspective of the domestic market, there were more domestic maintenance devices in May, and more unplanned maintenance occurred, resulting in a market supply gap in a short period of time. Although the overall trend of PP prices was poor in May due to the increased impact of the environment and high industry resistance, PP prices were more resistant under the support of the overall tight supply.
From the perspective of foreign markets, the more concentrated equipment maintenance and hot downstream demand in the first quarter have had a positive impact on the market, but the excessive and fast increase in the early stage has overdrawn the future trend. PP import prices soared from a low of $800 / ton to $1030-1050 / ton. At the same time, although the price of domestic products rose equally amazing, but compared with the import increase is still slightly less, the price difference between the internal and external prices once widened to more than 1000 yuan/ton, the decline in import demand and the opening of the export window, the formation of strong support for the domestic market. After entering the middle and late April, the maintenance device basically resumed production and supply, and the high pressure on import prices gradually increased. Downstream demand also began to taper off over the same period, and import prices continued to fall after May.
Therefore, for the domestic market, as the domestic centralized maintenance period gradually comes to an end, the recovery of supply and the reduction of export business will jointly increase the overall supply of goods in the market. Although the price of PP has fallen against each other in the near future, the market pressure will be far greater than that of PE products in the later period. The new capacity of PP in the second half of the year is also far greater than the new capacity of PE, and the probability of the overall price trend is relatively weak.
