Polypropylene terminal demand data analysis after the market trend is worrying
Polypropylene supply and demand imbalance situation highlights, the growth rate of downstream products is significantly lower than the growth rate of supply, the market terminal demand subtle changes, the proportion of wire drawing gradually declined, the development of special materials to guide the development of polypropylene demand after the market!
I. The supply and demand of all kinds of products of polypropylene manufacturers have changed significantly, resulting in overall changes in the market
2015 new capacity expansion of 400,000 tons/year, plus Shenhua Yulin project 300,000 tons/year PP plant a total of 700,000 tons, this year the overall supply of PP market 16.89 million tons, an increase of 22.69%, while the average growth rate of downstream products is 4.37%, it is obvious that the supply growth rate is greater than the growth rate of demand. Polypropylene downstream demand, drawing class is mainly concentrated in the weaving industry, due to meager profits led to the overall demand weakened, real estate recession caused by cement woven bag demand contraction, directly affecting the demand for raw materials. In terms of copolymerization, low melting copolymerization is mainly used in the automobile and electric vehicle battery industry, the purchase tax of small displacement vehicles is halved and the preferential treatment of new energy vehicles is strengthened to increase the policy impact and stimulate some copolymerization demand, but due to the impact of the environment, the consumption level of residents is limited, it is difficult to pull the entire market demand progress. Fibers are mainly concentrated in non-woven fabrics, especially the application of high-melt fibers in the medical and health field is increasing, and its profits and development prospects are greater. Injection molding supply and demand gap is large, especially high melt injection molding in transportation and medical equipment, the application of increasing intensity, is one of the special materials in polypropylene special materials with the greatest demand potential application field. The demand for film is relatively stable, and the demand for heat-sealing film and metallized film products still has development prospects. Laser film is still in short supply, only a few enterprises can produce; The demand for label film and anti-fogging film began to start. CPP with its excellent mechanical strength, better dimensional stability, high thermal sealing strength and low production costs, in the past few years, CPP film has maintained an average annual growth rate of more than 20%, becoming one of the fastest developing packaging materials.
II. The change of polypropylene pattern affects the future market trend
Based on the current production capacity and the impact of new capacity expansion devices in 2016, under the influence of the long road of domestic economic recovery, the long-term pain caused by the imbalance of supply and demand of the industrial chain will continue. However, the domestic economic transformation and the demand for new and innovative technology will still drive the demand for some high-end performance special materials in the market, such as transparent materials for medical and health special needles, electrification and high fusion finger injection plastics for medical devices, etc., and the refinement of market application fields will be more obvious. In terms of ordinary wire drawing, the strength and field of market demand will show a relatively decreasing trend. The Chinese market will gradually integrate with the international market, and low-end energy-consuming and high-cost devices will be phased out. Comprehensive domestic and foreign economic situation and domestic supply and demand and other fundamental analysis, it is expected that the high point of the wire drawing market in 2016 will appear in March and April, high-end prices or will hover around 7,000 yuan/ton, and the market low is expected to appear in November and December, low-end prices or will fall below 6,000 yuan/ton threshold risk.
